Nov 28, 2025
Company News
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2025 was a pivotal year for China's battery industry to emerge from in-depth restructuring and achieve a strategic turning point. Its most prominent feature was the explosive growth of energy storage demand against the backdrop of steady demand for new energy vehicles, driving full-capacity production and sales across the entire industry. This transformation, coupled with the improvement of the supply and demand structure, directly led to the re-emergence of supply-demand mismatches, pushing the prices of key materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate up by more than 240% within the year and triggering a wave of locking in production capacity through long-term agreements in the industrial chain.
The technical route showed a pragmatic trend of "diverse competition and parallel development". Semi-solid-state batteries launched demonstration applications for vehicle installation, all-solid-state batteries entered a phase of orderly engineering research, and sodium batteries achieved commercial implementation in specific scenarios, laying the foundation for industry transformation in 2026.
In terms of the policy environment, the anti-involution trend ran through the whole year. Policies and the industry collaborated to promote the industry's shift from "volume at the expense of price" to "value return", from regulating lithium ore mining to resisting low-price competition.
Looking ahead to 2026, Vke Network Lithium Battery believes that a new upward cycle of lithium batteries has started, and the industry will usher in a comprehensive recovery, entering a profound transformation stage driven by supply and demand rebalancing, technological innovation, policy regulation and value return. It is expected that China's battery industry will present eight highly anticipated highlights in 2026.
The fundamental adjustment of supply and demand relations is the core driving force for the industry's recovery in 2026. After the pains of overcapacity and price wars, the industry's inventory cycle has hit the bottom and entered a prosperous period of active inventory replenishment.
On the demand side, power batteries will maintain steady growth benefiting from the increase in electricity load of passenger cars and the continuous release of new scenarios; the energy storage market will witness a resonance of domestic and foreign demand driven by cost reduction, policy support and scenarios such as AIDC. On the supply side, due to the contraction of capital expenditure in the past two years and the pressure on the profitability and cash flow of lithium battery enterprises at present, the industry's motivation for capacity expansion is significantly insufficient. This will drive the industry to shift from a "buyer-dominated market" to a "structural seller's market" dominated by supply and demand game. Key material links such as lithium iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate may face tight supply, and prices have the momentum for sustained growth.
With the value return of the lithium battery industry, the industry's profit margin is expected to be further restored. According to statistics, in the first three quarters of 2025, the median net profit margin of 105 listed companies in the Shenwan Secondary "Battery" sector (excluding 1 fuel cell enterprise and mineral enterprises) was only 2.78%, a further decline compared with the same period in 2024. This means that more than half of the companies have meager profitability, and value revaluation and profit restoration are imminent.
In 2026, the tight supply and demand pattern will drive the rise of the foundry model. The contradiction between the capacity gap of leading enterprises and the restriction of capacity expansion is intensifying, while newly entered small and medium-sized enterprises have idle production lines due to lack of orders. This supply-demand mismatch will lead to a competitive situation of "scrambling for foundries" among leading enterprises.
If the past decade was dominated by new energy vehicles in the battery industry, the keyword for 2026 will be "scenario explosion", which will accelerate the shift from single-drive to multi-scenario resonance of power + energy storage + low-altitude economy/humanoid robots.
New energy vehicles remain the ballast stone for battery demand. The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicts that the sales of new energy vehicles will reach 19 million in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. The growth highlight will come from the commercial vehicle sector, especially new energy heavy-duty trucks. The national level has listed "promoting the large-scale application of new energy heavy-duty trucks" as a key work in 2026, which will effectively drive the demand for high energy density batteries.
Energy storage will become the fastest-growing field. SMM predicts that the global demand for energy storage batteries is expected to grow by about 50% in 2026, and its absolute increment may even surpass that of power batteries for the first time. The driving force comes from the emergence of the economic inflection point of independent energy storage driven by domestic capacity electricity price policies and the new increment contributed by AIDC energy storage configuration. In terms of products, 314Ah battery cells are still the domestic mainstream, and the replacement cycle of larger capacity battery cells is expected to start after 2027.
The two fields of low-altitude economy and humanoid robots will gradually enter large-scale application, and have begun to force battery technology to make breakthroughs in high energy density, high power and extreme safety. CALB has established a leading advantage in this field. Its 9-series high-nickel/silicon system flight battery has an energy density of more than 300Wh/kg and supports 6C fast charging, and the second-generation semi-solid-state large cylindrical battery has an energy density of 350Wh/kg. Its supporting GAC GOVY AirCab has received more than a thousand intentional orders and plans to start mass production and delivery in the second half of 2026, which is expected to become another large-scale commercial case of CALB in the aviation-grade battery field and enhance its status as a technological benchmark.
The superimposed implementation of a number of new battery policies in 2026 will profoundly reshape the pattern of the lithium battery industry from three dimensions: safety technology, market competition and industrial chain coordination, bringing both challenges and opportunities for enterprises.
"Safety Requirements for Power Storage Batteries for Electric Vehicles" (GB38031-2025) will be implemented on July 1, 2026, incorporating the mandatory requirement of "no fire, no explosion" after thermal runaway for the first time; "Technical Specifications for Safety of Electric Bicycles" (GB 17761—2024) was implemented in December 2025, clarifying the bottom line of acupuncture safety; "interim Measures for the Administration of Recycling and Comprehensive Utilization of Waste Power Batteries of New Energy Vehicles" will be implemented on April 1, 2026, explicitly prohibiting the use of waste vehicle batteries in fields such as electric bicycles.
Under the superimposed effect of policies, industry reshuffle will accelerate significantly. Taking the electric two-wheeler market as an example, the new national standard completely blocks the circulation path of inferior batteries from the demand side, while the recycling ban cleans up the source of non-compliant batteries from the supply side. This will directly spawn a huge stock replacement market, and enterprises with systematic safety design capabilities will seize the opportunity.
For example, Starhoo Power, which has long been engaged in the light vehicle battery field, its technical route is highly consistent with the high-safety policy orientation. The company made a strong move on January 22 and held the 2026 Electric Motorcycle Technology New Product Launch Conference, launching the brand-new GT-Force high-conductivity long-range technology and supporting products. Through material and structural innovation, the technology realizes a 33% increase in the pack rate, supports 5C discharge, has a cruising range of more than 100 kilometers and meets vehicle-level safety standards. The new battery cell product "Polaris" equipped with this technology covers a capacity of 32-50Ah and adapts to all scenarios of 1-15 kWh of electricity; the packaged FAR Ranger series of electric motorcycle lithium batteries launch 74V50Ah and 100Ah super large single cell configurations in China, and the "Ranger series" for the overseas market adapts to global models with specifications such as "double 80" and "double 100", fully demonstrating its systematic capabilities of high safety, strong power and wide adaptability of technology and products.
2026 will be a critical transition year for China's solid-state battery industry from "engineering verification" to "the eve of large-scale mass production", laying the foundation for large-scale commercial use from 2027 to 2030.
Clear policy drive: The national level has listed "accelerating the breakthrough of all-solid-state battery technology" as one of the key work in 2026, becoming the strongest guide for industrial development.
Intensive industrialization implementation: The core symbol is "pilot line verification" and "first batch of vehicle installation". Many automobile enterprises such as GAC, Dongfeng, Changan and FAW Hongqi plan to realize prototype testing or small-batch vehicle installation verification of semi-solid-state or all-solid-state batteries in 2026. Battery enterprises such as Sunwoda completed the technological iteration from semi-solid-state to all-solid-state batteries in 2025. Its "Xin·Bixiao" polymer all-solid-state battery has an energy density exceeding 400Wh/kg, a cycle life of more than 1200 cycles, and passed the 200℃ hot box safety test. In the future, it will continue to iterate and innovate towards the direction of 520Wh/kg lithium metal super batteries.
Engineering becomes the focus: The technical focus of all-solid-state batteries shifts from "materials science" to "production engineering". Sulfide electrolyte is generally regarded as the mainstream technical route, but its engineering bottlenecks such as chemical stability, cost and solid-solid interface impedance are still core challenges. The industry consensus is that the large-scale application of all-solid-state batteries is expected to be in 2028-2030.
Equipment and processes benefit first: The manufacturing of all-solid-state batteries needs to introduce brand-new processes such as dry electrode, isostatic pressing, laser or pressure fusion welding, bringing first-mover opportunities for equipment enterprises. For example, the first dry electrode pilot line of G-NERGY covers seven core processes, realizes one-stop production from "raw material input → finished pole piece output", adapts to the pilot demand of 100MW-level dry electrode, and supports the large-scale processing of positive electrode, negative electrode and electrolyte materials with a monthly capacity of 24,000-30,000 ㎡ pole pieces; Crowncom Intelligent has achieved high-speed (>30m/min), wide-width (≥500mm) double-sided composite film formation in dry process, and has assisted a customer in putting into production a 0.2GWh polymer all-dry production line; the pressure fusion welding technology of Kaluoweide has passed the testing of many leading battery enterprises and entered the application of mass production lines by virtue of its advantages of completing the welding of more than 100 layers of metal current collectors and composite current collectors within 100 layers in one step and a yield rate higher than 99.9%.
In 2026, the pattern of "leading enterprises taking the lead, multiple strong players advancing together" in the battery industry will become increasingly distinct. Two giants, CATL and BYD, continue to lead the way. Second-tier enterprises accelerate the construction of differentiated advantages in segmented scenarios by virtue of technological or market characteristics, while small and medium-sized enterprises lacking core technologies and economies of scale will be increasingly marginalized. Industry competition has fully shifted from "scale expansion" to "value creation".
Competition among enterprises will be further upgraded to a contest of industrial chain ecology. Leading enterprises will pay more attention to the resilience of the supply chain, and lock in key resources and production capacity through long-term orders, strategic cooperation, joint ventures and even promoting vertical integration. A typical representative is CATL, which made intensive layouts in January 2026: locked in the supply of 3.05 million tons of lithium iron phosphate with Ronbay Technology for the next five years, subscribed 233 million shares of Fulin Precision with 3.175 billion yuan, and at the same time agreed to purchase no less than 3 million tons of lithium iron phosphate products from it in the next three years.
"Anti-involution" will remain the core main line of the development of China's battery industry in 2026. This trend has deepened from the initial industry initiative to systematic policy regulation and industry self-discipline actions. In January 2026, four ministries and commissions including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology jointly held an industry forum, clarifying that they will regulate the competition order through measures such as strengthening cost investigation and price monitoring, enhancing production consistency inspection, and strengthening the leading role of standards, and guide the construction of a market order of high quality for high price and fair competition.
Driven by both policies and the market, the clearance of low-end production capacity will be accelerated, and the industry competition will usher in profound changes. Enterprises will focus more on building differentiated advantages through technological innovation, high-quality overseas development and the development of high value-added segmented markets.
The market layout of CALB is a typical embodiment of this trend. Among its supporting models, the entry-level market below 100,000 yuan accounts for only 12.7%, while the main market of 100,000-200,000 yuan with greater value space accounts for as high as 64.7%, and the 200,000-300,000 yuan range accounts for 16.9%, and it is actively laying out in the range of 300,000-400,000 yuan and above. This reflects its differentiated strategy of avoiding the red sea of competition and focusing on value creation.
2026 will be a key watershed in the globalization process of China's battery industry. On January 8, the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration jointly issued an announcement, clarifying that the value-added tax export rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% starting from April 1, 2026, and cancelled in 2027. This policy, coupled with the guidance of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on "rational, orderly and safe overseas layout", marks that the government is using the "visible hand" to force industrial upgrading, pushing the industry to completely bid farewell to "low-price involution" and move towards high-quality development.
Against this background, the overseas development model of Chinese battery enterprises will undergo fundamental restructuring. The benefits of the simple 1.0 model of "Made in China, Sold Globally" will decline, replaced by the 2.0 model with "overseas factory construction and local operation" as the core, or even a higher-level 3.0 model of localization and ecological construction.
In general, the cancellation of tax rebate incentives will directly squeeze the profits of enterprises that export solely by virtue of price advantages in the short term, and may push up the demand for raw materials due to "rush to export". In the long run, it will accelerate industry differentiation. Leading enterprises that have completed or accelerated the overseas capacity layout will suffer the least impact, and their first-mover advantages will be further expanded, ultimately forging world-class battery enterprises with truly sustainable global competitiveness.
In 2026, sodium batteries will officially enter the stage of large-scale production release from the initial stage of industrialization, with their core driving force lying in prominent resource endowment advantages and cost advantages.
In terms of market penetration path, the energy storage field will become the first market for sodium batteries to break through due to high requirements for safety and cycle life; the automotive start-stop market has commercial feasibility because it needs to replace lead-acid batteries and sodium batteries have significant advantages in low-temperature performance; the light vehicle market such as electric two-wheelers has become a potential increment space for sodium batteries driven by the "new national standard".
In terms of technical routes, the positive electrode materials of sodium batteries will form a tripartite confrontation pattern of layered oxides, polyanion-type and Prussian blue-type, and the negative electrode materials will be upgraded from hard carbon to soft carbon-hard carbon composite materials.
Leading enterprises such as CATL have announced that its "Sodium New" battery will be applied on a large scale in four fields: battery swapping, passenger cars, commercial vehicles and energy storage in 2026; Zhongke Haina and others have built GWh-level production lines and obtained bulk orders; EVE Energy started the construction of the sodium energy headquarters at the end of 2025, focusing on AIDC scenarios, with a total investment of about 1 billion yuan and a planned annual production capacity of 2GWh.
